Saturday’s DFS season only has two games, but there are still plenty of opportunities to build a successful DFS lineup.
In the first of the two duels on Saturday, the Seattle Seahawks meet the San Francisco 49ers. The Niners easily uncovered the range in both wins against division rivals Seahawks this season, and in this weekend’s matchup San Francisco took the lead at SI Sportsbook with a 9.5. I expect this game to go exactly as predicted, with the 49ers likely running the ball against a Seattle run defense that ranks 30th in the league and allows 150.2 rushing yards per game. Brock Purdy will be a great referee and all San Francisco pass catchers should be back in action for this game. As for Seattle, QB Geno Smith has played just one TD in two games this year against the 49ers, and the Seattle running backs have had little success against the league’s toughest run defense, which averages just 77.7 rushing yards per game admitted this year.
In the second matchup, the Los Angeles Chargers meet the Jacksonville Jaguars. This is considered a coin toss, with the spread currently only favoring the guest chargers by 2.5 points. In their only regular-season matchup, the Jaguars upset the Chargers 38-10; This time, however, Justin Herbert will have all of his guns healthy. Expect Jacksonville to attack on the ground as the Los Angeles defense has conceded the most yards per carry to runners this year, while the opposition has been limited to just 217 passing yards per game. Conversely, the Chargers should get the ball airborne against a Jacksonville defense that has allowed opposing QBs more than 250 passing yards per game this year.
With all of that in mind, here are my top picks at each salary price point for the Saturday dinner table.
Justin Herbert didn’t have his favorite receiver, Keenan Allen, the last time he faced the Jaguars. This time he will.
Gary A Vasquez/USA Today Sports
NFL DFS top tier games
quarterback
Justin Herbert (LAC)
Herbert’s matchup looks good on paper as the Jaguars have awarded the sixth-highest DFS points to opposing QBs this year. On the season, Herbert’s 4,739 passing yards is second only to Patrick Mahomes. Despite only throwing a TD in the week three matchup against Jacksonville, he put up 297 yards — and this time he’ll have Keenan Allen back.
Back race
Christian McCaffrey (SF)
The last time these two met, McCaffrey burned Seattle for 138 all-purpose yards and a touchdown. The Seahawks have conceded the fourth-most DFS points to runners this season, and the game script is in its favor as well, with the Niners currently favored at a 9.5 on SI Sportsbook.
wide receiver
Keenan Allen (LAK)
Allen has averaged more than 10 goals per game since returning from injury in Week 11. The Jaguars have conceded the sixth most passing yards per game this year and Justin Herbert has the third most passing yards in the NFL. Allen should be smashed.
Close end
George Kittle (SF)
Kittle has been particularly dominant over the past few weeks, including the last time he faced Seattle. In Week 13, he had 93 yards and two touchdowns against this Seattle team, which has conceded the most DFS points to close ends this season. Rookie Brock Purdy likes to target Kittle early and often, so don’t be afraid to spend money at the position.
NFL DFS mid-tier games
quarterback
Trevor Lawrence (JAC)
Lawrence has a rushing upside that could pay off against a Chargers team that has averaged 145.8 rushing yards per game (27′). In Week 3, Lawrence also burned away that typically tough Chargers pass defense, throwing for 262 yards and three points in a 38-10 win in Los Angeles.
Back race
Travis Etienne (JAC)
Speaking of how many rushing yards the Chargers are happy to give up… Etienne looks set to have a fine day! The Chargers have led opposing running backs at 5.59 yards per attempt in the league this year and have the sixth-highest DFS points per game. Etienne has carried the ball an average of 15 times per game since taking the starting job from James Robinson in Week 8.
wide receiver
Tyler Lockett (SEA)
In the two games between Seattle and San Francisco that year, Lockett saw a total of 20 goals. He’s averaged 64 receiving yards per game this season and leads all Seattle receivers with a 71.8% catch rate.
Close end
Evan Engram (JAX)
Evan Engram has averaged 7.5 goals and 68 yards per game in the last six competitions, and his 74.5% catch rate is better than Christian Kirk and Zay Jones.
NFL DFS Bargain Games
quarterback
Brock Purdy (SF)
Purdy just keeps going and doesn’t make a lot of mistakes. Purdy has thrown just three interceptions in five starts for the Niners. He threw for a pair of TDs against Seattle in Week 15, and his 67.1% completion rate is level with Patrick Mahomes.
Back race
Eli Mitchell (SF)
As much as I love CMC and am willing to spend money on him if you’d rather switch gears, don’t forget that Mitchell is back. Last week he carried the ball just five times, but he gained 55 yards for an 11-yard-per-try average. Should this game get out of hand, he will likely be tasked with stopping the ball game. The Seahawks have the fourth-most DFS points conceded running backs this season.
wide receiver
Zay Jones (JAC)
Jones is the WR2 in Jacksonville. His 82 catches are just two fewer than Christian Kirk’s. In Week 3 against the Chargers, Jones caught 10 of his 11 goals for 85 yards and a touchdown.
Close end
Gerald Everett (LAC)
The Jacksonville Jaguars are 22nd compared to the tight end, and Everett is running stretches with 66.4% of his snaps. This is the ninth most place.
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