Cal Plays Low-Scoring, Close Games, but Can't Win Them

Cal has outscored their opponents this season by 163-158, yet the Bears have a 3-4 losing record. Since the start of the 2021 season, the Bears have outscored their opponents by 448-425; However, they have an 8-11 record in that span.

What gives?

Well, the Bears had strong defense and mediocre offense during this period, so Cal keeps the opponent’s score low while his offense also keeps the Bears’ score low. So you have a lot of close games with few points.

That was fine in 2019, when the Bears went 3-2 and finished 8-5 in games decided by seven points or fewer.

But last year Cal was 0-5 in such games and finished 5-7 overall. This season, the Bears are 1-3 in games where the final margin was seven points or less, and in that one win — 20-14 against UNLV — the Rebels had the chance after hitting the cal 8-yard -Line in the last three minutes.

That makes Cal 1-8 in one-score games the worst in the Pac-12 since the start of the 2021 season. Washington is the only conference team to have played more games decided by seven points or fewer since the start of last season, and the Huskies are 4-6 in those 10 games. Washington State is 4-4 in its eight one-score games during that span, and no other Pac-12 team has played more than six close games since the start of the 2021 season.

The only Cal loss this season decided by more than a touchdown was the 28-9 loss at Washington State, and that was a 14-9 game three minutes into the fourth quarter.

So Cal can stay close but failed to win those games. For example, if the Bears had gone 5-4 instead of 1-8 in those games, we’d be singing a whole different song about the state of Cal football.

“That’s been the most important thing for us all season — finishing games,” Cal Nose Tackle Ricky Correia said this week.

After tight games, Scott Frost was fired in Nebraska. The Cornhuskers went 0-9 in games decided by seven points or less from the start of last season until Frost was fired three games this season.

So what’s the explanation? What does it take to win tight games?

“I think it comes down to guts and faith and being able to do it,” said Cal quarterback Jack Plummer.

Is it just about getting over that hump? Once a team wins a close game, they better assess their chances of a replay. And as Plummer says, faith plays a big part. This is why teams with many inexperienced players often find themselves at the bottom of tight games.

“You build trust through demonstrative performance,” Wilcox said in the video above the story.

Cal started four true freshmen in the overtime loss to Colorado two weeks ago, and just five players who were starters for the Bears at the end of last season were starters in Saturday’s seven-point loss to Washington. That’s a lot of new faces. Plummer, a transfer from Purdue, isn’t new to college football, but he is new to Cal’s offensive system.

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According to Wilcox, there is no lack of “wanting”. But he finds that a few games here and there make all the difference in tight games, and Cal hasn’t made enough of them.

“It’s a process,” Cal offensive coordinator Bill Musgrave said this week. “I think you learn how to win. Young teams learn how to win. The more experience you gain, the more lessons you can apply.”

Yes, experience is an important factor. But having an offense that can pick up points, especially late in games, is also a factor in a team’s ability to win those tight games.

Four key games this season provided examples:

—USC rushed 84 yards for the winning touchdown with 1:13 left in a 17-14 win over Oregon State.

—Oregon scored in the fourth quarter on touchdown drives of 75 and 69 yards, the second TD came out 1:21 to close a 12-point deficit and beat Washington State 44-41.

— UCLA rushed 61 yards on possession that started 2:52 left and ended with a game-winning 24-yard field goal in the final game of the Bruins’ 32-31 win over South Alabama.

—Utah rushed 75 yards for a touchdown along with a two-point conversion with 48 seconds remaining to beat USC 43-42.